National Security Leadership: Are We Prepared For the Complex Challenges of the 21st Century?

Mr. Peter Schwartz

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Peter Schwartz employs many guises in discerning the complex patterns and forces shaping our world---as a futurist, business strategist, venture capitalist, writer, and speaker.  Asked what he does, he responds:  "I see myself first and foremost as someone who helps organizations think deeply, and perhaps in unconventional ways, about the future."

In 1987, Peter co-founded Global Business Network (GBN), the world's preeminent member organization focused on scenario thinking and planning.  Scenarios are stories that enable us to imagine and plan for different plausible futures, and they serve as powerful tools to help businesses and other organizations develop sustainable strategic visions.  As GBN's Chairman, Peter specializes in building scenarios for leading corporations, governments, and non-profit institutions.  His current research and scenario work encompasses energy resources and the environment, technology, life sciences, telecommunications, media and entertainment, aerospace, and national security.

Peter hones his skills at the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies in London, where he headed the scenarios team from 1982 to 1986.  Before that, he directed the Strategic Environment Center at SRI International.  The Center researched the business milieu, lifestyles, and consumer values, and conducted scenario planning for corporate and government clients.  In addition to his work with GBN, Peter is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and serves on the boards of the Santa Fe Institute, the Long Now Foundation, the World Affairs Council and Human Rights Watch (Northern California).

A prolific author, Peter's most recent book, Inevitable Surprises, offers a provocative look at the complex forces at play in the world today and their implications for business and society.  His first book, The Art of the Long View, is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning and has been translated into multiple languages.  He coauthored The Long Boom, a vision for the world characterized by global openness, prosperity, and discovery; When Good Companies Do Bad Things, an examination of, and argument for, corporate social responsibility; and China's Futures, which describes very different scenarios for China and the international implications.  He has even found an audience in Hollywood;  Peter served as a script consultant on several films including The Minority Report, Deep Impact, Sneakers, and War Games.

Peter received a B.S. in aeronautical engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

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